Geopolitical and market intelligence
Analysis that shows the reasoning, not just the conclusion.
We follow the press and the data that bear on a region’s trade and economy. Our analyses are built from signals and reporting in the major press, and we show how we reached our reasoning using data you can check. We do not decide what you think; we give you what you need to decide.
Latest analyses
- August 16, 2026 Peru
Peru answers the diesel spike with 4 soles a gallon, and the sharpest price pressure sits where the subsidy does not reach
Emergency Decree 007-2026 assigns up to 105 million Peruvian soles — around 31 million dollars — to a subsidy of 4 soles per gallon of diesel for authorized passenger and freight transport, over three months. Annual inflation reached 4.07% in July, the fifth straight month above the central bank's target, and the country's steepest rise is in Puerto Maldonado, in the Amazon, at 7.96%.
Confidence
74%
- August 13, 2026 Brazil
Brazil invokes reciprocity with 15.8% of its trade exposed to the US — and 30.6% to China
On 13 August the Brazilian government opened proceedings under its Economic Reciprocity Law against the American tariffs. The practical decision, however, may take up to nine months and fall to the next government — and Brazil is retaliating with 15.75% of its total trade exposed to the United States, against 30.64% with China.
Confidence
72%
- August 10, 2026 Colombia
Colombia must finance up to 2% of GDP in reconstruction with a deficit that is already 8%
The magnitude 7.4 earthquake of 10 August hit 448 municipalities across 15 departments and halted operations at Buenaventura, the port that handles a fifth of Colombian port cargo. Reconstruction is estimated at 1% to 2% of GDP — between US$ 6.4 and US$ 12.7 billion — and falls on a state already running a deficit close to 8% of GDP.
Confidence
68%