Geopolitical and market intelligence
Analysis that shows the reasoning, not just the conclusion.
We follow the press and the data that bear on a region’s trade and economy. Our analyses are built from signals and reporting in the major press, and we show how we reached our reasoning using data you can check. We do not decide what you think; we give you what you need to decide.
Latest analyses
- September 25, 2026 Brazil
Brazil switched off a 40 billion reais market by provisional measure, and the next Congress decides whether it stays off
The September 25 provisional measure (a decree with immediate force that Congress must approve) took online betting offline; in 2025 it yielded 8.9 billion reais in federal taxes and 1.1 billion in sponsorship to the biggest soccer clubs. The effect on household budgets depends on bettors not migrating to illegal sites, and the ban expires on March 5, 2027 if Congress does not approve it.
Confidence
70%
- September 24, 2026 Mexico
Banxico decoupled from the Fed, and the Mexican peso had its worst losing streak since 2019
On September 24, a week after the Fed raised rates, the Bank of Mexico held its rate at 6.5% and said it would not react mechanically to Washington. The minutes later showed three of the five board members open to cutting. The peso has lost 9.5% since the start of September, and the bank now depends on the depreciation not reaching prices.
Confidence
72%
- September 24, 2026 Argentina
Argentine poverty stopped falling: 32.3% in the first half, and the engine that drove it down from 52.9% lost strength
Argentina’s statistics institute recorded poverty of 32.3% in its cities in the first half of 2026, up from 28.2% in the previous half — the first rise in two years. Annual inflation remains near 33%, the economy contracted in the second quarter, and unemployment reached 7.9%, the highest since 2021.
Confidence
72%
- September 22, 2026 Chile
The U.S. diesel ban never came, but it showed that Chile is the South American country with the least room to face it
Between September 22 and October 2, the White House discussed banning diesel exports for 90 days and backed off after a G7 agreement. Chile bought more than 3.8 billion of the 4 billion dollars of diesel it imported this year from the United States, weakened the mechanism that cushioned the price in March, and is not part of the group that received the guarantee.
Confidence
66%
- September 22, 2026 Ecuador
Ecuador tripled industry's power cuts in three weeks to spare households, and the worst period has not yet begun
Since October 12, 185 large industrial firms and about 8,900 medium-voltage companies have been without grid power three days a week, and the largest pay 30 cents of a dollar per kilowatt-hour, against 12 until September. The government says the worst of the drought runs from late November to February; the country's main reservoir is already eight meters from the critical level.
Confidence
70%
- September 18, 2026 Bolivia
Bolivia ended cheap diesel on the day it approved the IMF loan, and the agreement already puts gasoline on the clock for 2027
The September 18 decree took diesel from 9.80 to 17.95 bolivianos per liter and tied it to the international price, on the same day Congress approved a US$1.9 billion IMF loan. The agreement calls for ending all fuel subsidies from 2027, including the gasoline subsidy, which the government says is not on the agenda.
Confidence
72%
- August 16, 2026 Peru
Peru answers the diesel spike with 4 soles a gallon, and the sharpest price pressure sits where the subsidy does not reach
Emergency Decree 007-2026 assigns up to 105 million Peruvian soles — around 31 million dollars — to a subsidy of 4 soles per gallon of diesel for authorized passenger and freight transport, over three months. Annual inflation reached 4.07% in July, the fifth straight month above the central bank's target, and the country's steepest rise is in Puerto Maldonado, in the Amazon, at 7.96%.
Confidence
74%
- August 13, 2026 Brazil
Brazil invokes reciprocity with 15.8% of its trade exposed to the US — and 30.6% to China
On 13 August the Brazilian government opened proceedings under its Economic Reciprocity Law against the American tariffs. The practical decision, however, may take up to nine months and fall to the next government — and Brazil is retaliating with 15.75% of its total trade exposed to the United States, against 30.64% with China.
Confidence
72%
- August 10, 2026 Colombia
Colombia must finance up to 2% of GDP in reconstruction with a deficit that is already 8%
The magnitude 7.4 earthquake of 10 August hit 448 municipalities across 15 departments and halted operations at Buenaventura, the port that handles a fifth of Colombian port cargo. Reconstruction is estimated at 1% to 2% of GDP — between US$ 6.4 and US$ 12.7 billion — and falls on a state already running a deficit close to 8% of GDP.
Confidence
68%