Argentine poverty stopped falling: 32.3% in the first half, and the engine that drove it down from 52.9% lost strength

The figure

On September 24, Argentina’s statistics institute reported that 32.3% of the population of the 31 urban areas it surveys was below the poverty line in the first half of 2026. In the previous half, it was 28.2%.

That is 9.7 million people in the surveyed cities. Extreme poverty (indigence) — income that does not cover even the food basket — rose from 6.3% to 7.5%, or 2.2 million people.

It was the first rise in two years.

How it is measured, and why it matters

In Argentina, poverty is measured by income. A household is poor when what it earns does not buy a basket of basic goods and services, calculated month by month. In June, a family of four needed about 1.53 million pesos to stay above the line.

This method makes the index react very quickly to prices. If inflation rises faster than wages, poverty rises in the following half. If inflation falls, poverty falls with it.

That is why the Argentine series is so volatile — and why the September figure says more about inflation than it seems.

From 52.9% to 28.2%, and back to 32.3%

In the first half of 2024, at the height of the price crisis that marked the start of Javier Milei’s government, poverty reached 52.9%. From there, inflation plunged, and poverty fell with it to 28.2% in the second half of 2025, the lowest level since 2018.

That decline was the main social result of the government’s economic program.

The new figure shows that the decline has stopped. But the comparison must be read carefully. Against the previous half, the rise is 4.1 points. Against the same half of 2025, when poverty stood at 31.6%, the rise is only 0.7 point — a difference that, according to one of the sources, the institute itself considers statistically insignificant.

The honest reading, therefore, is not that poverty exploded again. It is that it stopped falling.

The engine that lost strength

If disinflation brought poverty down, the explanation for why it stopped lies in inflation.

Monthly inflation is back below 2% — it was 1.9% in September. But annual inflation remains at 33.4%, practically at the same level for months. And, according to economists interviewed by the press coverage, the baskets that define the poverty line have been rising faster than average inflation since the end of 2025. For those near the line, the cost of living has risen faster than income.

The labor market did not compensate. Unemployment reached 7.9% in the second quarter, the highest since 2021, and informal employment grew by one point in a year. A survey based on official records counts 32,290 fewer employers since November 2023 — with the caveat that one fewer registered employer is not the same as a closed company.

And activity contracted. Output in the second quarter fell 0.6% from the first, the first quarterly decline in two years, and the July monthly indicator dropped 2.9%. Argentina’s central bank projects another decline in the third quarter, which would amount to a technical recession. The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for Argentina in 2026 from 3.5% to 2.1%.

Where it weighs most

The rise was not uniform. In urban areas with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants, poverty rose 4.9 points; in the larger ones, 3.9. Concordia, in Entre Ríos, has 56.2% poverty. Gran Resistencia, in Chaco, 48.6%. In the city of Buenos Aires, according to one of the sources, the rate is 11.1% — and in its metropolitan surroundings, 36.9%.

The government’s response

President Milei denies there is a recession. In an interview at the end of September, he called the poverty figure an old photograph and said the indicators show anything. The economy minister, Luis Caputo, ruled out a recession on October 16 and predicted a strong recovery in the fourth quarter.

The market reads it differently. The country risk premium, which stood at 402 points in July, passed 640 at the end of September and was at 611 on October 14. The presidential election is in October 2027, and Milei has already said he will seek reelection.

Reading

Argentine poverty is today more or less where it was a year ago. What has changed is the direction: the mechanism that brought it down — prices rising less than income — has stopped operating, and the two factors that could replace it, growth and employment, are moving backward.

The question the figure leaves is whether 28.2% was a floor. The official answer comes in March 2027, with the second-half figure. Until then, what indicates the direction is monthly inflation, third-quarter output, and unemployment.